Atlanta Falcons 2022 Preview – Hidden Layer Betting

2021 Record: 7-10 3rd NFC South

2022 Win Total: 4.5 wins

Over 4.5 -115

Under 4.5 -115

Notable Stats:

Yards Per play: 23rd 5.1

Yards per pass attempt: 20th 7.0

Offensive QB Sack percentage: 20th 6.53%

Yards per run:  30th 3.7

3rd down conversion rate: 19th 38.86%

Turnover Margin: 25th -0.4

Yards Per Play allowed: 23rd 5.6

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 23rd 6.8

Yards allowed per rush: 15th 4.3

Defensive QB sack rate: 32nd 3.03%

Notable losses:  Matt Ryan QB, Calvin Ridley WR, Russell Gage WR, 

Notable additions: Marcus Mariota QB, Bryan Edwards WR, Geronimo Allison WR, Auden Tate WR, Rashaan Evans LB, Lorenzo Carter LB, Dean Marlowe S, Casey Harward Jr CB

1st Round Draft Pick(s): Drake London WR USC

Strength of schedule: 23rd  (1 Easiest, 32 Hardest)

2021 Review:

The Falcons had a mediocre season in which every game they won was against opponents that failed to make the playoffs. They also lost every game against opponents that did make the playoffs. The Falcons also were unfortunate to lose their star receiver Calvin Ridley midway through the season which left them lacking in talent at the wide receiver position. Given how poor the Falcons were statistically it’s surprising that they were even able to get 7 wins. Ultimately this team was thrust into a rebuild and the moves done in the offseason have only reinforced that. 

Offensive Outlook: 

While Marcus Mariota may not be the best option available, he at least provides a few extra layers of production that defenses have to account for. Given how poor the Falcons pass catchers are, it’s reasonable to assume that the Falcons will have one of the worst passing attacks in the entire league. Drake London is a rookie, Bryan Edwards flopped in Las Vegas, and Olamide Zaccheaus never caught more than three passes last season. Even the rest of the receiving corps is filled with players that are on their 2nd or more team. At least the Falcons have a dynamic player at running back who can do it all. Cordarrelle Patterson will be heavily utilized to keep the chains moving this season, and with Kyle Pitts, Mariota should at least have a few good weapons to utilize. Head coach Arthur Smith is going to be put to the test this season with all the new faces. 

Defensive Outlook:

Dead last in sack rate, 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt, and 23rd in yards allowed per play. That’s what the Falcons are going to have to improve on going into this season. Lorenzo Carter joins the team and should at least help with pass rush, as he got 5 sacks last season with the Giants. In the secondary the Falcons may be stuck in the mud. Three of their top four players in the secondary have played on 3 or more teams. Safety Erik Harris has played for the Saints, Raiders, and is now finally on his 2nd season with the Falcons. Cornerback Casey Hayward Jr is on his 4th team overall and 3rd team in the last three seasons. Fellow safety Dean Marlow is also on his 3rd team in three seasons and wasn’t even good enough to stay on the Lions roster. Only former 1st round pick AJ Terrell has more than 1 season of experience with the Falcons among those players. At best, this defense plays as well as they did last year. However, with the offense likely to struggle, I suspect this defense will be on the field a lot more than last season. 

Season Prediction:

The Falcons are a few injuries to Patterson and Pitts from being the worst team in the NFL. The markets reflect that and even have their win total the same as the Texans.  I’ll keep this short, I like the under here and think the Falcons actually end up with the worst record in the NFL. 

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Author: Calvin Stewart