2021 Record: 13-4 1st NFC North
2022 Win Total: 10.5 wins
Over 10.5 -150
Under 10.5 +120
Yards Per play: 9th 5.8
Yards per pass attempt: 5th 7.6
Offensive QB Sack percentage: 12th 5.76%
Yards per run: 21st 4.2
3rd down conversion rate: 9th 43.46%
Turnover Margin: 4th +0.7
Yards Per Play allowed: 13th 5.3
Yards per pass attempt allowed: 4th 6.2
Yards allowed per rush: 28th 4.6
Defensive QB sack rate: 13th 6.47%
Notable losses: Davante Adams WR, Za’darius Smith LB, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Notable additions: Sammy Watkins WR, Jarran Reed DE
1st Round Draft Pick(s): Quay Walker LB Georgia
Strength of schedule: 15th (1 Easiest, 32 Hardest)
The Packers had a dominant season as they not only went 13-4, but finished atop the NFC and earned the bye week for the 2021 playoffs. What’s even more impressive about their regular season was that they only had one loss that was by more than seven points and it was in week one. Unfortunately they fell flat on their faces in the playoffs and somehow lost to the 49ers 13-10 in Green Bay. So how does a team that’s top of the league in many statistical categories on both offense and defense fail to win a playoff game against Jimmy G? The answer is special teams. The Packers not only had a blocked field goal in the divisional round, but also had a blocked punt returned for a touchdown late in the 4th quarter that tied the game. The Packers quickly fired special team coordinator Maurice Drayton, and another year of Aaron Rodgers was wasted once again.
The Packers will take a step back from a talent perspective in 2022. Davante Adams is gone, and in steps Allen Lazard as the Packers projected number one receiver. Needless to say, Rodgers will have his work cut out for him. Rodgers will also have newly acquired receiver Sammy Watkins who is now on his 5th team in seven seasons. The Packers recognized they were in trouble and used three draft picks on receivers this year. Perhaps 2nd round draft pick Christian Watson can get playing time and provide valuable snaps. Green Bay would be lucky to get Robert Tonyan back into the fold, but he just got placed on the PUP list for his still injured ACL. To make matters worse, all-pro left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle Elgton Jenkins also got added to the PUP list. Going further along the offensive line provides even more question marks. If Bakhtiari, who just had another knee procedure done, is unable to start the season, the Packers might not have a single starting offensive lineman with more than two years of experience. Backup left tackle Yosh Nijman and left guard Jon Runyan have only two years in the league. Center Josh Myers, right guard Royce Newman, and backup right tackle Cole Van Lanen have all only played one season. It’s reasonable to assume that both the running and passing game will be affected from this lack of experience. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are talented running backs, but this line may keep them from doing much early on in the season. When you factor in losing Robert Tonyan, the Packers have lost nearly 44% of the receptions from last season. Everything is leading to Aaron Rodgers and how much he can make up for in the season. I don’t want to bet against him, but this may be one of the toughest seasons he has had yet.
On defense the Packers should be a top ten unit once again this season. Outside of losing Za’darius Smith, they did a great job in the offseason to keep the defense fairly intact. They added first round draft pick Quay Walker who should hopefully help in the one area the Packers were weak in which was on the ground. I’d expect this side of the ball to play just as well as last year.
With so many question marks on offense and a middling strength of schedule I can see why the Packers win total opened a little lower than expected at 10.5. Regardless, the market has responded and bet the over all the way up to -150. At these numbers, I begin to question how much I’m willing to stomach in order to place an over bet. At some point, Aaron Rodgers will not be able to make up for this team’s lack of quality personnel. I’m not willing to bet against the bad man just yet, but for the purposes of making a stand I’ll hold my nose and go under 10.5 wins.