2021 Record: 4-13 3rd AFC South
2022 Win Total: 4.5 wins
Over 4.5 wins -105
Under 4.5 wins -125
Yards Per play: 30th 4.7
Yards per pass attempt: 25th 6.6
Offensive QB Sack percentage: 24th 7.46%
Yards per run: 32nd 3.4
3rd down conversion rate: 16th 39.75%
Turnover Margin: 12th +0.2
Yards Per Play allowed: 31st 5.9
Yards per pass attempt allowed: 30th 7.5
Yards allowed per rush: 27th 4.6
Defensive QB sack rate: 22nd 5.54%
Notable losses: Tyrod Taylor QB
Notable additions: Marlon Mack RB, AJ Cann RG
1st Round Draft Pick(s): Derek Stingley Jr CB LSU, Kenyon Green OG Texas A&M
Strength of schedule: 28th (1 Easiest, 32nd Hardest)
The Texans were abysmal in nearly every meaningful statistical category that exists. Perhaps the only thing that didn’t go horribly wrong was their rookie QB Davis Mills. Mills played as well as you can expect given the roster situation. Mills beat fellow rookie QB Trevor Lawrence in both QBR and QB rating. Lawrence may have been overrated or that could have been an anomaly of a season but still worth noting. Outside of that the Texans are in a full blown rebuild, they are the face of a massive scandal, and most NFL fans couldn’t name more than 2 players on the team.
There is no where to go but up for the Texans offense in 2022. Head coach Lovie Smith has said he wants to be a team that can run the ball. Well for a team that was dead last in yards per run, it’s going to take a lot of improvement in order to do that. Perhaps the additions of right guard AJ Cann, running back Marlon Mack, and 1st round pick Kenyon Green will get this team from dead last to at least 30. If Mills turns out to be just as capable as Trevor Lawrence then the Texans will consider their long term situation positive all things considered. The sole objective of this season should be to determine if last year was an anomaly or if Mills can actually play well.
The Texans came in the bottom 5 in yards per play allowed, yards allowed per pass attempt, and yards allowed per run. So once again on defense the only direction to go is up. The one thing the Texans did that wasn’t bottom 5 in the league was rushing the passer. Jonathan Greenard led the team with 8 sacks and will need to repeat his performance in 2022 for the Texans to stay competitive.
The Texans only won 4 games last season and 2 of them were against the Jaguars. Another win came against the Titans in a wet and rainy game in which Tyrod Taylor, the Texans starting QB at the time, only threw for 107 yards. The final victory was the most impressive, which was against the Chargers in week 16. If the Jags improve modestly, the Texans may have trouble finding many wins this season. To make matters worse, they have the 4th hardest schedule in the entire league. Perhaps the only thing that gives the Texans a chance is that they will play every game against opponents who overlook them. Outside of that, I can’t reasonably expect them to win more than a few games. Even the victories they will get this season will be unexpected and embarrassing for their opponents. Perhaps this will be the first 0-17 season, perhaps the Texans win 4 games once again. In my opinion, the only thing you can bet for this team is the under.