Indianapolis Colts 2022 Preview – Hidden Layer Betting

2021 Record: 9-8 2nd AFC South

2022 Win Total: 9.5 Wins

Over 9.5 -155

Under 9.5 +125

Notable Stats:

Yards Per play: 15th 5.6

Yards per pass attempt: 21st 6.9

Offensive QB Sack percentage: 13th 5.79%

Yards per run:  2nd 5.1

3rd down conversion rate: 11th 42.62%

Turnover Margin: 1st +0.8

Yards Per Play allowed: 22nd 5.6

Yards per pass attempt allowed: 17th 6.7

Yards allowed per rush: 20th 4.4

Defensive QB sack rate: 26th 5.24%

Notable losses:  Marlon Mack RB, Carson Wentz QB, Matt Eberflus DC, Jack Doyle TE, TY Hilton WR, Eric Fisher LT, Mark Glowinski RG

Notable additions: Matt Ryan QB, Nick Foles QB, Phillip Linday RB, Gus Bradley DC, Stephon Gilmore CB, Yannick Ngakoue, 

1st Round Draft Pick(s): N/A

Strength of schedule: 3rd (1 Easiest, 32nd Hardest)

2021 Review:

In what may have been the worst loss in the entire NFL season, the Colts finished the year by losing to the Jaguars in a “win and you’re in” playoff situation. Carson Wentz was fairly unstable throughout the season and while he was 9th in QBR in the league, he also threw for less than 200 yards in nearly half the games he played. The Colts instead depended on Jonathan Taylor who led the league in rushing yards by over 500 yards. What hobbled the Colts throughout the season was their performance in close games. In the four games the Colts played that either went to overtime, or were decided by 3 or less points they went 0-4. Their defense also played below what most would expect and finished below average in yards per play allowed, yards allowed per pass attempt, and yards allowed per run. 

Offensive Outlook: 

Even though he is currently 37 years old, I still think Matt Ryan is at least a slight upgrade over Carson Wentz. This will probably be the best situation Matt Ryan has been in since his Super Bowl run in 2016. Ryan has emerging star Michael Pittman Jr and 6’5” tight end Mo Alie-Cox to throw to. Ryan will also have a top tier running game to lean on. The Colts must make up for the loss of 2 of their starting offensive lineman over the offseason. They also will need to quickly establish a solid WR #2. So long as those things can happen, I would expect the Colts to be a top 12 team in yards per play  in 2022. 

Defensive Outlook:

The Colts made some big time moves to improve the defense this year. Starting with former defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore. The all pro cornerback should help along with newly added edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue. Combine them with defensive tackle Deforest Buckner, and linebacker Darius Leonard and you have a solid defensive group. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley made a top 12 unit from nothing when he coached the Raiders. Now he has more talent, and a smart organization. I would expect the Colts to play as a top 10 unit in 2022. 

Season Prediction:

The Colts got better in all the areas they were weak in 2021. They have better players, better coaching, and the 3rd easiest schedule in the league. The only big question marks are with Matt Ryan and a few pieces at receiver and offensive line. If Matt Ryan can at least match what Wentz was able to do and the Colts perform better in close games they likely get 9-10 wins. If he is able to elevate this team, then the ceiling of this team can be around 12 wins given their schedule. I love the over at 9.5 wins -155, and I love betting the Colts to win the division at -120.

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Author: Calvin Stewart