2021 Record: 4-13 4th AFC East
2022 Win Total: 6 wins
Over 6 -125
Under 6 -105
Yards Per play: 25th 5.0
Yards per pass attempt: 26th 6.6
Offensive QB Sack percentage: 27th 8.08%
Yards per run: 14th 4.4
3rd down conversion rate: 27th 36.32%
Turnover Margin: 29th -0.8
Yards Per Play allowed: 29th 5.9
Yards per pass attempt allowed: 29th 7.5
Yards allowed per rush: 24th 4.5
Defensive QB sack rate: 24th 5.32%
Notable losses: Jamison Crowder WR, Keelan Cole WR
Notable additions: CJ Uzomah TE, Carl Lawson DE,
1st Round Draft Pick(s): Ahmad Gardner CB Cincinnati, Garrett Wilson WR Ohio State, Jermaine Johnson II DE Florida State
Strength of schedule: 27th (1 Easiest, 32 Hardest)
The Jets continued to tank in 2021 by going 4-13 and failing to win a single game by more than seven points. On offense New York had to change quarterbacks five times throughout the season and used four different starting quarterbacks. They had just one receiver record 500 receiving yards and ranked bottom ten in almost every meaningful offensive category. Perhaps the only success the team enjoyed all year was rookie Michael Carter who led the team in rushing yards and was 4th in receptions. On defense the Jets arguably played worse. Head coach Robert Saleh, who is a defensive minded coach, could not get things right on the ground or in the air. The Jets ranked 24th in yards allowed per rush, and 29th in yards allowed per pass. While expectations were low in 2021 for Saleh, who inherited the worst team imaginable from ex head coach Adam Gase, this year will be quite different.
The Jets return nearly their entire offense from last season. At the very least, that should provide a level of communication and consistency that could help them throughout the season. New York will now need some of their young prospects to turn into stars. With Jamison Crowder gone, who led the team in receptions, the focus now turns to 2nd year wideout Elijah Moore who led the team in receiving yards his rookie season. The Jets could also use Corey Davis who recorded nearly 1,000 receiving yards in 2020. These two, combined with first round draft pick Garrett Wilson should provide young athletic talent for Zach Wilson to throw to. It also helps that the Jets signed CJ Uzomah, who is a large pass catching tight end that is valuable in the red zone. In the running game the Jets drafted Breece Hall who is already expected to start ahead of Michael Carter. Regardless of who ends up starting, New York has one of the youngest skill position rosters in the league. With more weapons, and more experience, the focus now turns to 2nd year quarterback Zach Wilson. Wilson was anything but inspiring his first year in the league. Wilson ranked 30th in yards per pass attempt, 30th in QBR, and 31st in QB rating. His yards per pass attempt ranked below Ben Roethlisberger who could barely throw the ball 20 yards. I’m skeptical his performance will improve much this season, and would expect the Jets to enter the QB market once again next offseason. As a whole the offense should improve slightly, but the floor is rock bottom. Joe Flacco or Mike White may see playing time once again this season.
While the Jets return all of the major playmakers on defense, I’m not so sure that’s a good thing. Given they ranked 29th in yards per play, this side of the ball needs a complete overhaul. The Jets elected to address this issue by using two of their three first round picks on defense. The Jets now have six former first round picks on defense in Sheldon Rankins, Quinnen Williams, CJ Mosley, Sauce Gardner, Jermaine Johnson, and Solomon Thomas. At some point, the additions of high level talent should elevate this team. With the Jets however, anything is possible.
The Jets won the following games in 2021: home vs Titans 27-24 (OT), home vs Bengals 34-31, away vs Texans 21-14, home vs Jaguars 26-21. While the victories against the Titans and Bengals are impressive, you could argue they were flukes given they were at home and by only three points each. I don’t think this offense will improve enough to make up for the lack of quality QB play. I also have my doubts on defense as well as the coaching staff. Add in a 27th ranked strength of schedule, and I am completely out on this team. I think six wins is likely their ceiling and will happily go under at -105.