2021 Record: 10-7 3rd NFC West
2022 Win Total: 9.5 wins
Over 9.5 -140
Under 9.5 +110
Yards Per play: 2nd 6.0
Yards per pass attempt: 2nd 8.5
Offensive QB Sack percentage: 15th 5.92%
Yards per run: 19th 4.3
3rd down conversion rate: 14th 40.09%
Turnover Margin: 21st -0.2
Yards Per Play allowed: 4th 5.1
Yards per pass attempt allowed: 11th 6.4
Yards allowed per rush: 5th 3.9
Defensive QB sack rate: 3rd 8.3%
Notable losses: Laken Tomlinson LG, Alex Mack C
Notable additions: N/A
1st Round Draft Pick(s): N/A
Strength of schedule: 13th (1 Easiest, 32nd Hardest)
The 49ers punched above their heads in 2021 and were able to defeat the Cowboys in Dallas, the Packers in Green Bay, and nearly the Rams in LA during the playoffs. If it weren’t for a dropped interception late in the Rams game, we may be talking about the current Super Bowl champions. The team as a whole performed as one of the more complete teams in the entire NFL. The defense held opponents to 5th in yards allowed per rush, and 4th in yards per play allowed. The offense played well given the lack of talent at QB. The 49ers were 2nd in yards per play and 2nd in yards per pass attempt. Despite the deep playoff run, and the healthy underlying metrics the 49ers still landed themselves in offseason headlines. Deebo Samuel requested a trade early on in the offseason, and rumors of a potential Jimmy G trade started around the draft. As of this writing nothing has happened yet, but something to keep in mind.
With rumors circulating that Jimmy G will not be with the team, the show now turns to Trey Lance. Lance played in four games last season and threw for 603 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He threw 41 for 71 and earned a QB rating of 97.3. Given how poor Jimmy G was down the stretch of 2021, it’s hard to believe that the floor for Lance is anything but a 1 for 1 replacement. The ceiling of Lance is where things can get interesting. With a full offseason I have to imagine Kyle Shanahan will have him fully operational. Shanahan was able to turn an offense led by Jimmy G into 2nd in yards per play, 2nd in yards per pass attempt, and nearly win the NFC Championship. With Deebo and Kittle, Lance should have all the help he needs.
The 49ers stayed intact this offseason on defense and I would expect their performance to carry over from last season. If anything they have likely benefited from other teams taking a hit at some positions. They no longer have to deal with Russell Wilson in their division, and the Cardinals will be without their star receiver for 6 games.
The 49ers are one of the most complete teams in the league at every position except for QB. They have coaching that prepares them to attack their opponents weaknesses and the talent to execute those plans. If we expect Trey Lance to play decently then the 49ers probably win 9-10 games. If he plays better than expectations then this team could compete for the bye week in the NFC. I love the over here at 9.5 and at -140 I think it’s a steal.